http://hdl.handle.net/10174/42 2026-04-17T06:54:39Z http://hdl.handle.net/10174/41845 Title: Multiple dimensions of extreme weather events and their impacts on biodiversity. Authors: González-Trujillo, JD; Román-Cuesta, R; Muñiz-Castillo, AI; Amaral, CH; BASTOS ARAUJO, MIGUEL Abstract: Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon. As such, no single metric can capture all trajectories of change and associated impacts. While numerous metrics exist to measure climate change, they tend to focus on central tendencies and neglect the multidimensionality of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs differ in their frequency, duration, and intensity, and can be described for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, while considering different thresholds defining “extremeness.” We review existing EWE metrics and outline a framework for classifying and interpreting them in light of their foreseeable impacts on biodiversity. Using an example drawn from the Caribbean and Central America, we show that metrics reflect unequal spatial patterns of exposure across the region. Based on available evidence, we discuss how such patterns relate to threats to biological populations, empirically demonstrating how ecologically informed metrics can help relate EWEs to biological processes such as mangrove recovery. Unveiling the complexity of EWE trajectories affecting biodiversity is only possible through mobilisation of a plethora of climate change metrics. The proposed framework represents a step forward over assessments using single dimensions or averages of highly variable time series. 2023-11-06T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10174/41837 Title: Oceanographic connectivity explains the intraspecific diversity of mangrove forests at global scales Authors: Gouvêa, L; Fragkopoulou, E; Cavanaugh, K; Serrão, E; BASTOS ARAUJO, MIGUEL; Costello, M; Taraneh Westergerling, ET; Assis, J Abstract: The distribution of mangrove intra-specific biodiversity can be structured by historical demographic processes that enhance or limit effective population sizes. Oceanographic connectivity (OC) may further structure intra-specific biodiversity by preserving or diluting the genetic signatures of historical changes. Despite its relevance for biogeography and evolution, the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring the distribution of mangrove’s genetic diversity has not been addressed at global scale. Here we ask whether connectivity mediated by ocean currents explains the intra-specific diversity of mangroves. A comprehensive dataset of population genetic differentiation was compiled from the literature. Multigenerational connectivity and population centrality indices were estimated with biophysical modeling coupled with network analyses. The variability explained in genetic differentiation was tested with competitive regression models built upon classical isolation-by-distance (IBD) models considering geographic distance. We show that oceanographic connectivity can explain the genetic differentiation of mangrove populations regardless of the species, region, and genetic marker (significant regression models in 95% of cases, with an average R-square of 0.44 ± 0.23 and Person’s correlation of 0.65 ± 0.17), systematically improving IBD models. Centrality indices, providing information on important stepping-stone sites between biogeographic regions, were also important in explaining differentiation (R-square improvement of 0.06 ± 0.07, up to 0.42). We further show that ocean currents produce skewed dispersal kernels for mangroves, highlighting the role of rare long-distance dispersal events responsible for historical settlements. Overall, we demonstrate the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring mangrove intra-specific diversity. Our findings are critical for mangroves’ biogeography and evolution, but also for management strategies considering climate change and genetic biodiversity conservation. 2023-03-29T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10174/41831 Title: Vacant niches help predict invasion risk by birds Authors: González del Pliego, P; Mendoza, M; Santana, J; Ribeiro, J; Reino, L; BASTOS ARAÚJO, MIGUEL Abstract: Aim If communities have a ceiling determining the number of species that can coexist, then the ability of alien species to establish at any given location should be related to the quantity of vacant niches available. We developed a new approach to estimate the extent to which niches are vacant and then explored the relationship between vacant niches and alien species. Location Global with focal tests in Europe and North America. Taxon Birds. Methods Drawing on a global classification of trophic structures for birds, we calculated a ‘vacant niche ratio’ metric to quantify the expected level of saturation (i.e. number of vacant niches) for each 1° × 1° grid cell globally, based on the difference between expected and observed numbers of bird species for all trophic guilds. Next, we used random forests to examine if the presence of plant-invertivore (whose food source represents plants, seeds, fruits and invertebrates) and granivore alien bird species was associated with the vacant niche ratio across well-sampled regions. Results In Europe, we found a significant relationship between alien species and vacant niches, with greater numbers of alien species being found in communities that offered greater numbers of vacant niches overall, and across habitat types. In North America, we found no significant relationship between plant-invertivores and vacant niches, while for granivores, we found that areas with fewer vacant niches had greater numbers of alien species, especially in forests. However, vacant niches alone correctly predict 69% of the presence of alien bird species when combining both regions and trophic guilds. Main Conclusions Most regions of the world have unsaturated bird communities, with the level of saturation in communities varying within regions and trophic guilds. We found that although often-neglected, vacant niches are likely to be, at least partially, related with the successful establishment of alien bird species. 2023-07-19T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10174/41829 Title: Conflicting rationalities limit scientific uptake in spatial conservation prioritization Authors: BASTOS ARAUJO, MIGUEL Abstract: Spatial conservation prioritization offers a scientific framework for decision-making, yet its practical uptake remains limited. Here, I argue that incorporating social and political dimensions into conservation prioritization — rather than focusing solely on technical and economic aspects — would enhance progress towards biodiversity targets by ensuring closer alignment with real-world governance dynamics. 2025-03-30T23:00:00Z