Misconception of model transferability precludes estimates of seagrass community reorganization in a changing climate.

Abstract

aru and Rock1 used species distribution modelling (SDM) to project widespread reductions in seagrass species’ range sizes and increased endemism under end-of-century climate change. These shifts in alpha diversity were found to be similar across four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Global beta-diversity patterns would become more heterogeneous. From their models, Daru and Rock conclude that the redistribution of seagrasses would cause present-day marine protected areas to be ineffective, calling for the prioritization of new conservation areas. However, conceptual and methodological shortfalls in their implementation of SDM undermine accurate estimates of seagrass community reorganization in a changing climate.